Net red dish only left tail goods, regulation and control of the combination of boxing throughout the year, the volume was v-shaped trend, experts: the downward trend may continue to spread

2022-05-12 0 By

Source: E company original title: Net red only left the tail goods, regulation and control of the combination of boxing throughout the year, the turnover was v-shaped trend, experts: downward trend may continue to spread source: Securities Times e company real estate changes continue to evolve, what are the changes in the market?Recently, reporters from E company conducted field research on the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Changsha and other 9 key cities to feel the real pulse of the market.From now on, e company has launched a column, a daily survey report on real estate in key cities, to entertain readers.Chapter eight, about Guangzhou.In the past year, the property market in Guangzhou has also shown great ups and downs, from the heat at the beginning of the year, to a series of control combinatorial blows.Based on the control background of “housing not speculation”, guangzhou real estate market regulation and control of the combination of boxing throughout 2021, the control means continue to upgrade, Guangzhou real estate market since the middle of 2021 has continued to enter the adjustment stage, the end of the year is slightly warm.Experts believe that Guangzhou property market is currently in the repair stage, can also be said to be looking for the bottom of the stage, but the inertia of the downward trend may spread to the first quarter of this year.Poly Tianhui, located in Tianhe District, the main urban area of Guangzhou, is one of the most visible online red disks in Guangzhou.The reporter of Securities Times · E company learned that Poly Tianhui is an old renovation project of Tianhe Xiaoxintang, which Poly Development (600048) invested 20 billion yuan in 2015, with a total construction area of 2.34 million square meters. It has been more than two years since it was officially sold to the public at the end of 2019.The project has been sold from the first phase to the fifth phase, and the housing price has skyrocketed from just over 40,000 yuan/ping at the beginning to around 70,000 yuan/ping at the latest.● Data show that from 2020 to 2021, Poly Tianhui signed nearly 1,400 houses online, accounting for 26% of the total transactions in Tianhe District. In other words, 1 out of every 4 home buyers in Tianhe District in recent two years chose Poly Tianhui.On October 7, 2021, Poly Tianghui Phase 5 opened. It was reported by media that 90% of the units were sold within 5 minutes, and the number of hot units reached 10 people to grab one set.Securities Times · E company reporters recently went to the site of Poly Tianhui project, currently the new five phase is still in full swing construction, next to the project for the owners to move out of the slogan “welcome home” is also quite eye-catching.However, when the reporter entered the marketing center, it was found that very few customers came to see the offer, which was quite different from the hot scene when Poly Tianhui five opened during the National Day in 2021.According to the staff, currently the project is only selling the final goods of phase 2#3, priced between 64,000 yuan/ping and 70,000 yuan/ping.And the current Spring Festival holiday is approaching, less disk is normal.(Poly Tianhui Marketing Center, taken by the reporter of E Company in January 2022) (During the National Day of 2021, poly Tianhui is full of visitors, the photo is from the real estate agent.) At the scene, a middle-aged house-viewer who needs improvement said to the reporter that Poly Tianhui has been the focus of his attention.”My personal opinion is that if you can buy Tianhe in Guangzhou, you don’t have to look at other districts.But tianhe district in recent years the new plate is very few, if you do not want to buy second-hand house, there is not much other choice space.”And the marketing center staff also said to reporters, suggested that just need customers as soon as possible to start, the follow-up project price probability will still rise.In addition, yuexiu and Yuyufu located in Panyu District are also in 2021 Guangzhou “a hard to find” network red project, many times become “Japanese disc”.The reporter learned from a real estate agent, yuexue and yuyue fu each push new, buyers have to “spell hand speed”, “look at the queue to row for a long time”.(At the end of 2021 yuexiu and Yuyue Fu new launch scene, video from a real estate agent) Recently, yuexiu and Yuyue Fu have no new opening.Securities Times · E company recently visited the site of the project, although the Spring Festival is approaching, the construction of the project is still in full swing.According to the above agents told reporters, Yuexiu and Yuyue Fu in December last year, the record price will be increased this year (Yuexiu and Yuyue Fu new project is still under construction, E company reporter photo in January 2022) new house market supply is sufficient according to midland Property report statistics,In 2021, a total of 102,116 residential products in Guangzhou new House market obtained pre-sale license, increasing by 0.8%;Pre-sale area of 10,226,300 square meters, a decrease of 2.3%.The monthly distribution fluctuates greatly. The housing supply in the first quarter is small, but it increases slightly in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the annual supply peak appears, and the number of housing supply in September is nearly 20,000.On the whole, the sufficient supply of new houses in Guangzhou in 2021 has played a role in promoting the transaction of new houses, continuing the trend in 2020.In terms of turnover, the turnover of primary and second-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou rose in 2021, among which 116,077 primary residential buildings were sold, a sequential increase of 3.5%;Second-hand residential transactions 117103 sets, a growth of 27.0%.From the transaction price point of view, the average transaction price of primary residential 29428 yuan /㎡, up 6.6%;The average transaction price of second-hand housing was 32,521 yuan /㎡, down 2.5%.In 2021, the turnover of primary residential buildings in Guangzhou showed a V-shaped trend.The start of the year continued the hot state of 2020;Since April in the continuous increase in the regulation and control of the gradual downturn, new home transaction fell into the bottom;After September, the property market policy was relaxed, and the transaction volume gradually picked up, finally surpassing last year’s transaction volume, becoming the second peak since 2016.Second – hand market is the first Yang after suppression of the situation, January – April to maintain a high turnover.● Middle finger Institute data show that the average transaction price of new houses in Guangzhou in the first half of 2020 was 29207 yuan /㎡, and the average transaction price in the first half of 2021 rose to 32,352 yuan /㎡, up more than 10% year-on-year, leading the rise of the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.However, based on the control background of “housing not speculation”, Guangzhou real estate market regulation and control of the combination of the whole year of 2021, control means continue to upgrade, including strengthening credit supervision, strictly check all kinds of illegal capital inflows, tightening talent purchase policy, value-added tax “2 to 5”, and known as the “big killer” second-hand housing guidance price issued.A series of policies have made the property market in Guangzhou continue to enter the adjustment stage since mid-2021.The market rapidly cooling, transaction downturn, below ten thousand cases.At the end of the year, with the continued downturn in the market, some owners began to loosen their mind, not only willing to lower the price, but also volunteered to bear the VALUE-ADDED tax, which promoted the transaction of the second-hand market, so the second-hand market has a tail.It is worth mentioning that the guangzhou property market in the past year also reflects the obvious differentiation effect.According to the transaction heat chart of various plates in Guangzhou during the National Day Golden Week of 2021 collected by Hefu Research Institute, the heat of tianhe district, Huangpu District, Haizhu District and other core areas of Guangzhou is still high, but the attention of Zengcheng District, Conghua District, Huadu district and other outer suburban areas is becoming cold.Experts: The downward trend may continue to spread in 2022, Guangzhou property market may usher in a supply blowout year.A total of 126 new projects are expected to be unveiled in Guangzhou in 2022, up 54 percent from 79 in the same period last year, according to statistics from Guangzhou China Land Bank.For the current situation of guangzhou property market and the future trend of research and judgment, securities Times · E company reporter interviewed Li Yujia, the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center.Li Yujia said that the current guangzhou property market is in a repair stage of rapid downward trend after August 2021, and the transaction volume in December 2021 has a small rebound compared with November.But from the house price point of view, the new house, the second-hand house price also continues to decline.The main reason is that from the epidemic in 2020 to the first half of 2021, the housing price and transaction volume in Guangzhou rose too fast.This is a healing phase, a bottom-finding phase, but the downward trend of inertia is likely to spread into the first quarter of this year.”Compared with other first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangzhou has the biggest characteristics. First, Guangzhou has a wider supply location, which is dominated by zengcheng, Whampoa and Nansha outside the core urban area, and the demand for house purchase of migrants in these areas is relatively large.Since last year, whampoa, Nansha and other places to tighten the talent purchase policy, coupled with a significant decrease in foreign investment, resulting in a significant market decline.””The second feature is that the actual purchasing power level of Guangzhou is lower than that of Shanghai and Shenzhen, which is also determined by the industrial structure.Guangzhou’s industries are mainly automobile, commerce and trade, transportation and logistics, etc. The number of middle class groups is relatively large, but the number of high net worth people is smaller than that of Beijing, Shenzhen and Shenzhen. Therefore, the average housing price of Guangzhou is generally lower than that of Beijing, Shenzhen and Shenzhen, and the elasticity of Guangzhou’s property market will be less than that of Beijing and Shenzhen.”Li yujia points out.For the development trend of guangzhou property market in the next year, Li Yujia believes that the first quarter of this year may still be a bottom stage, but can not expect a rebound in the first half of the year soon.”The market may come back a little bit, but I think it’s probably going to be weak, and the first half of the year should be a weak one.On the one hand, the overall market confidence still needs to repair, on the other hand, there has not been a significant decline in interest rates.”While we are seeing a decline in LPR at the moment, it is relatively small.”